Friday, November 14, 2008

The Poker Economy

The Poker Economy

I have never really thought about how the poker economy until the last couple of months. I always just saw a system of people depositing $100 on a Friday night, donking it off in whatever SNG's or cash games they saw fit with the money filtering through to the winning players (and some others who eventually lose it) and the rake takes it cut. The winning players move up, maybe some cash a bit out, maybe some of the players at the higher levels take some of the money off them and move up, and so on.

Tournament wise I think you have to assume that your average winner of the Sunday million or an FTOPS event doesn't plough the $200k back into the poker economy. It seems likely such is the same for the mid/high stakes grinders too. I think this system is reasonably sustainable, as long as there is a steady supply of people doing the initial depositing and some maniac open shoving every third hand on a Friday night at $2/$4.

So it's interesting to see how things are changing at the moment. Someone told me last week that cash game traffic was actually up at Stars and FTP over the last few weeks. I thought that was a little strange give than they are currently struggling to make some of their more aggressive guarantees at the moment. However, it would appear that at least some of this traffic is coming from other sites where the games are drying up, as I found out this weekend. There has almost always been decent traffic at Cake and Party for the limits I play ($200NL/ $400NL) at the weekend, but that seems to have slowed a bit recently, and with less decent table selection options available, I found my self playing cash at Stars for the first time in ages.

On the positive side, there still seems to be plenty of action online. It feels a bit like early post UIGEA with nobody really knowing what effect it will have on the player pool. The games may be marginally tougher but for now at least, I think the industry is going to be fine. It will be interesting to see what happens other the coming months as people discover that this financial storm may be a little harder to weather than people suspected.

Now of course we have the confirmation/finalisation of UIGEA to fret about. I think the banks currently have a bit more to worry about that spending money on systems to implement the changes made my a pretty open-for-interpretation law, but that’s just the way I see it. The reality is it could be worse, and the harder it is to deposit the less liquidity there will be in the games, so they are bound to get tougher.

Certainly an interesting time for online poker. And only time, as we are all fully aware, will tell.

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